San Diego Home Mortgage Blog

We will start by floating; at the end of the day unless there is an improvement we will lock overnight.

Started a little better early this morning, at 8:30 weekly jobless claims added just a smidge of support. Claims, expected to up 2K were unchanged but last week's claims were revised slightly higher, from 502K to 505K. Continuing claims declined again to 5.61 mil frm an upward revised 5.65 mil (frm 5.63 mil). The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended benefits under federal programs. Today’s report showed the number of people who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting extended payments jumped by about 119,000 to 4.16 million in the week ended Oct. 31. No job creation; no concern over it though; markets are fixated on a jobless recovery and that employment is a lagging indicator. A rather naive view in our opinion in this unprecedented recession.

At 9:00 this morning the 10 yr note +8/32 at 3.34% -3 BP, mortgage prices +4/32 and the DJIA futures -58; want to guess why the stock indexes are weaker? The dollar is stronger this morning against the euro currency---Pavlov's dog. On Monday Obama made his first comment that the dollar should be stronger, since then the dollar seems to have stabilized and is doing its thing weakening the equity markets. At 9:30 the DJIA opened -57, 10 yr note +5/32 and mortgage prices at 9:30 +3/32.

At 10:00, a few minutes ago, the Nov Philadelphia Fed business index, expected to have increased from a read of 11.5 in Oct to 12.0, the overall index jumped to 16.7. New orders component at 14.8 frm 6.2, prices pd component at 14.9 frm 21.3 and employment component at -0.5% frm -6.2%. A better report but little initial reaction to it.

At 10:00 the MBA reported that 9.6% of all mortgages are delinquent; a huge number.

Also at 10:00 Oct leading economic indicators, estimates at +0.4%, hit at +0.3%, the seventh month in a row LEI has increased.

Tim Geithner is on the Hill today; more testimony on financial reform.

At 11:00 Treasury will announce the amounts for next week's auctions. Last month's 2, 5 and 7 yr notes totaled $116B, likely will be in that range again. Supply used to send tremors through the rate markets on fears of soft demand; recently however demand has been very strong and likely that will be the case next week. If not, look out as markets have little concern that bidding for US debt will slow.

Congratulations to Frank and Brian on delivering 120K petitions on HVCC to Atty General Cuomo In NY. The boys of summer have done a yeomen’s job working on driving forward the concerns of the mortgage lending industry. They led the way for all lenders.

PRICES @ 10:10 AM

10 yr note: 100.10 +8/32 3.35% -2 BP

5 yr note: 101.01 +6/32 2.15% -4 BP

2 Yr note: 100.08 +2/32 0.71% -4 BP

30 yr bond: 101.27 +20/32 4.26% -4 BP

Libor Rates: 1 mo 0.236%; 3 mo 0.266%; 6 mo 0.492%; 1 yr 1.033%

30 yr FNMA 4.5 Dec: @9:30 101.25 +3/32 (.09 bp) (+4/32 (.12 bp) frm 9:30 yesterday)

15 yr FNMA 4.0 Dec: @9:30 102.24 +3/32 (.09 bp) (+3/32 (.09 bp) frm 9:30 yesterday)

30 yr GNMA 4.5 Dec: @9:30 101.31 +4/32 (.12 bp) (+5/32 (.15 bp) frm 9:30 yesterday)

15 yr GNMA 4.0 Dec: @9:30 102.29 +4/32 (.12 bp) (+4/32 (.12 bp) frm 9:30 yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 88.72 -0.60 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.4857 -$0.0103 (dollar stronger)

Gold Dec: $1133.70 -$7.50

Crude Oil Dec: $78.01 -$1.57

Goldman-Sachs

Commodity Index: 516.62 -3.57

DJIA: 10292.24 -137.27

NASDAQ: 2152.27 -40.87

S&P 500: 1092.23 -17.57